631 Red Yeezys were sold on eBay before it dropped

This past Friday we tweeted:  “Prediction (not based on data):  Nike drop Red Yeezy’s tomorrow while everyone’s head is turned looking for Tiffs”.

Proof:

Red October tweet

If I have to tell you why that is now the most amazing tweet ever, you’re on the wrong blog.

With the Yeezy 2 Red October finally here, and before we have mounds of new eBay data to wade through, let’s take a look at the resell profile of the Red Yeezy prior to it’s release.

We decided not to calculate average price like we usually do.  First, given the unique circumstances of this shoe we will need to test a few variations of our outlier removal process (as explained in detail in our 4-part blog series about using data to spot fake Yeezys), which will take some time.  Second, given the relative flood of authentic pairs hitting the market, there is less value in knowing aggregate stats about the previous, highly suspect pairs.

Instead of aggregate stats, we present every pair of Red Yeezy’s sold on eBay:

Red October

Methodology:

  • Data set is eBay sold auctions for mens sneakers, new and use. There were only 17 used pairs sold, so they were included.
  • Timeframe is May 2012 through February 3, 2013, although the first pair wasn’t reported sold until  June 2013.
  • The blue line is actually a series of individual data points, each one representing a single sale.  The price of each sale is indicated by the Y-axis (vertical) scale, which ranges from $0 to $16,000.

Insights:

  • 631 total pairs sold.  Only 3 went for $10k of more; 11 sold for $5k or more; 90 for $1k or more.
  • Using these semi-arbitrary price points as cut-offs, we made a very rough guess as to which Yeezys were real and fake.  But please be aware that this hypothesis has not been tested – we share it simply for your amusement and discussion.

What do you think?  Which of these were real?

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One comment

  1. Love this blog! Really appreciate the approach and the insight you provide. Keep up the good work!

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