Welcome back to class – the class that explains the math behind the sneaker resell market.
Lesson #2: Total Sold (a.k.a. Volume, Quantity, Sales, etc.)
If there’s anything less complicated than Average Price, it’s Total Sold. But there are many parameters by which we can (and do) track sales, so which ones comprise the Campless stat “Total Price”?
- Source: eBay auctions that end in a sale
- Time Frame: past 1 year
- Condition: Deadstock + Used
- Size: Men’s only
- Fakes: No
In addition to eliminating fakes, we also remove price outliers and auctions with multiple pairs.
It’s easy to understand why sneakerheads care about price, but what’s the value of Total Sold? Most heat sells out instantly, so Total Sold represents how many pairs are being sold on the secondary market – it’s an indicator of availability.
Total Sold follows a predictable pattern: peak volume immediately following release, and then a downward trend thereafter. Eventually, all of the pairs purchased for resell have made their way into the hands of people purchasing to own. That usually takes a few years, after which we’ll only see a handful of sales every now and then when people dust off pairs in their closet to move.
Like Avg. DS Price, Total Sold also needs no example, but let’s continue to build out the sneaker profile for the two pairs we started with in the last Math Class post:
Nike Hyperdunk ’08 Marty McFly 2015 – Total Sold (1 year): 18
New Balance 580 x West NYC “Alpine Guide” – Total Sold (1 year): 97
Not surprisingly, there were only 18 pairs of the McFly Hyperdunks sold in the past year – the shoe released in 2008 and was limited at the time. The West NYC NB 580, however, which released just one year ago, had 97 pairs sold. But compare that to the Jordan 5 Grapes – which sold 7,915 pairs since it’s release in May, and we can see that the Alpine Guide’s are still pretty rare.
Air Jordan 5 Retro Grape (2013) – – Total Sold (since May): 7,915